Tensions between the United States and Iran, and the imminent possibility of full-scale war, have reached boiling point — with security experts warning of a looming refugee crisis that could destabilise the Middle East and flood Europe with more asylum seekers.GB News has investigated the possibility of another large-scale migrant catastrophe if last-ditch talks aimed at restricting the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme fail to reach a diplomatic breakthrough.It comes as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer ordered UK embassy staff to exit the country after Mike Huckabee, the American ambassador to Israel, warned those who wanted to leave “to do so today”.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened Washington with “uncontrolled consequences”, which could result in “legitimate targets” in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates being struck.
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But US President Donald Trump told reporters he “may have to use force” against Tehran amid the largest American military build-up in the region since the Iraq war.In 2003, one in six Iraqis were displaced, with the number of refugees hitting millions, estimates from the Refugee Study Centre reveal.Eight years after George W. Bush declared “mission accomplished”, Syria suffered a civil war that forced 6.7 million citizens to flee. And Libya’s internal conflicts, sparked by the Arab Spring protests in 2011, have led to 1 million people seeking refuge mainly in neighbouring countries.However, Iran has a population of 90 million people which is larger than the combined populations of Iraq, Syria and Libya.If just 10 per cent of Iran’s population is displaced, it could rival some of the largest refugee movements this century. And if a quarter of Iran’s escape, it would increase the global refugee population by upwards of 75 per cent, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR).Alex Nowrasteh, senior vice-president at the Cato Institute, commented: “(In Syria) The chaotic repercussions of such a massive refugee population disrupted the Middle East and Europe.”Critics said the impact could be consequential: not only for Iran and the Middle East, but also for Europe and the UK.LATEST DEVELOPMENTSBritain withdraws embassy staff from Iran as fears of US attack growUK advises against ‘non-essential’ travel to Israel amid Iran war as Donald Trump warns of ‘force’Donald Trump REFUSES to back Chagos deal unless Keir Starmer lets him attack Iran from UK-US baseTobias Ellwood, a former Conservative MP and chairman of the Defence Select Committee, told GB News: “You can’t just affect a country by bombs alone and expect it to all end well.”That’s where the soft power then comes in… a plan to then support Iran through a transition period, which will then make the Middle East more peaceful for everybody. But those problems, if you don’t solve them, will wash up on our shores.”The other one is extremism, because when people do depart from war zones, they could easily then be subject to indoctrination and then you get Islamic extremists coming out from that.”Mani Basharzad, a Junior Research Associate at the Institute for Economic Affairs, also raised concerns over large numbers of Iranians making their way to Britain.”The Islamic regime mobilises illegal immigration,” Mr Basharzad told the People’s Channel. “These people are a real threat to England (and) a real threatpreto the countries that they are in.”Insiders have said a “reformed” government, or military takeover in which the current regime remains in power, could be disastrous, with Mr Ellwood claiming extremists are “primed for the military to take over, replacing the theocratic dictatorship they have now”.Some reports suggest 30,000 people have been murdered in the streets since January for protesting against the Ayatollah — the biggest massacre of Iranians in recent history.Iran began the year with extensive protests sparked by its weak economy, with inflation rates consistently exceeding the 30 per cent mark, while the Ayatollah’s refusal to end his nuclear programme resulted in severe tariffs from the White House.Mr Basharzad, an Iranian citizen, said removing Khamenei after nearly four decades in power would only lead people to venture towards the likes of Turkey, Greece and Italy.”That would be the biggest wave of immigration,” Mr Basharzad explains. “People would go anyway they can. From when you had a period of high immigration from Iran to Western countries… the main difference was a sociological factor, which was that Iranians found out there’s no hope in Iran.”There’s no hoping to stay. That’s the reason they immigrated… risking their lives on a boat going to another country. That’s the system that happened. But right now, because of the economic situation, especially the exchange rate, legal immigration is almost impossible for most Iranians.Mr Ellwood said the “likelihood” of Iran being taken over by the IRGC — a multi-service primary branch of the Iranian Armed Forces that is proscribed as a terror group in the EU — is high, which could result in a “serious exodus of people trying to escape”.After the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, the number of Iranians outside the country doubled to 830,000. By 1990, that figure soared to 1.25 million.Today, the situation could be more serious. Mr Nowrasteh wrote in 2025: “Northern border crossings to Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia are overwhelmed with Iranians trying to leave…Even refugee flows of one million Iranians by the end of this year and 2.3 million by the end of next year would also be a disaster.”Between 2015 and 2024, 62,000 Iranians applied for asylum in the UK, which is 15,000 more than those from Afghanistan, according to the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.”People tend to, if they are refugees, stay close to the country of origin,” Mr Ellwood noted, but predicted a swarm of Iranians could set their sights on Dover, adding: “When countries are unstable, then people will flee, and they will then take the risk of the Channel crossing to get to the UK… all we can to put barriers up in bits and pieces.”Reza Pahlavi, son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran, has vowed to return to his homeland after nearly five decades of exile in the US. The political dissident, whom Mr strong argues has “broad support” from Iranians, has pitched himself as someone who wants to build stronger relations with the US and Israel. “He would offer a complete regime change and, in this instance, could offer the hope needed,” Mr Basharzad said. “If you have a regime change, Iranians who had no hope would have hope to stay in their own country… and so many Iranians would go back to their country.”But Mr Ellwood believes this scenario is “very unlikely”, saying: “It’s a very romantic image to think that’s going to solve all the problems, to have another unelected person who was related to the reason why the (1979) revolution took place in the first place.”Our Standards:
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